In Tunisia’s Elections, an Authoritarian President Runs Against an Imprisoned Contender and a Former Ally

Saied set out to arrest political opponents and journalists and cracked down on a wide range of civil society actors, from LGBTQ+ and nightlife communities to NGOs supporting migrants. He established a new political system with legislative and local elections which were largely boycotted by the opposition and saw record abstention rates approaching 90 percent.

In his rhetoric, these radical political changes are serving Tunisia’s “war of national liberation.” With a presidential election scheduled for October 6, political opponents and activists hoped for a chance to interfere with Saied’s autocratic course and test how much popular support he actually enjoys.

However, it soon became clear that the president does not intend to hold democratic, but rather performative, elections as he has eliminated the majority of his contestants. Out of the 17 candidates that initially intended to stand in the polls, the Independent Superior Electoral Body, which was appointed by the president himself, only approved three men to compete.

This decision was made despite legally binding court rulings by the Administrative Court — which has exclusive jurisdiction over electoral candidacy disputes — that had reinstated three additional opponents who were considered to be serious challengers.

“It's a very strange climate because we have an election, but we know that this election is breaking the law,” Tunisian civil society activist and content creator Hakim Fekih tells OkayAfrica. “If the president wins, the three candidates that have been excluded, even though the Administrative Court said they could run, can submit an appeal and the court could cancel the results of the election. If that happens, we will be in an unprecedented situation of having an elected president that is not recognized by the Administrative Court.” Holding an election under these circumstances, Human Rights Watch has said, is a mockery of citizens’ democratic rights.

Under the surface of a seemingly disengaged society and slim electoral campaign, tensions are brewing. “During the summer, the president appointed a new prime minister, changed 19 ministers, and replaced all 24 [governors] of Tunisia’s regions,” says Fekih. “That has never happened, and it shows that something is going on inside the regime that is not clear.”

On the side of the opposition, anonymously sponsored pages are surfacing online and leaking alleged government secrets. All kinds of rumors are circulating in this murky, unstable and unpredictable environment.

Enter Zouhair Maghzaoui, one of Saied’s two challengers. A former trade unionist, the Secretary General of the Arab nationalist "People's Movement" party initially supported Saied’s 2021 coup d’etat and voted in favor of the new 2022 Constitution. The low voter turnout in last year’s legislative elections prompted him to change his course and advocate for freedom of expression.

Maghzaoui is a pan-Arabist and Nasserist, stances that are not widely supported amongst Tunisians. His political direction and previous support for Saied will make it difficult for him to gain the people’s trust or build alliances with other opposition parties.

The third candidate, Ayachi Zammel, was detained by the authorities on the same day that his candidacy was confirmed; he was shortly released and immediately re-arrested. Facing charges of falsifying voter forms, he has been unable to carry out his campaign.

A little-known businessman and former parliamentarian, Zammel headed Azimoun, a small liberal party, until late August when he resigned to run as an independent. He has pledged to rebuild democracy, guarantee freedoms and fix Tunisia's collapsing economy. He has also spoken in support of political prisoners and prisoners of conscience, campaigning under the slogan “Turning the page.”

The opposition rallies behind Zammel, but most political opposition leaders are, like him, imprisoned. Civil society organizations that used to oversee the electoral process have been prohibited from monitoring the elections. Polls are also forbidden, making it difficult to assess public opinion right now. According to Fekih, some unofficial polls estimate Saied to have around 20 or 30 percent.

“Every single element of this campaign tells us that it won't be fair relations,” says Fekih. The situation is similar to Algeria’s recent sham elections that were widely boycotted; Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Algeria’s re-elected President is a close ally of Saied’s.

Fekih is not convinced that Tunisians will take to the polls on October 6. “The real problem is that people don't care anymore,” he says. “They don't seem concerned about what's happening. Everyone is just stuck in their own personal problems, and they don't care about politics.”

Despite growing apathy, several leftist groups and NGOs have called for an opposition protest in Tunis today.

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