Togo’s Democratic Future in Question Ahead of the Senatorial Election

Togo is gearing up for its senatorial election, the first of its kind in the country and the beginning of a new constitutional era in the small West African nation. The election was initially scheduled for February 2 but was postponed by the current administration "to allow political actors to better organize themselves."

This pivotal election, now scheduled for Saturday, Feb. 15, has been drawing criticism from opposition parties and observers. It will cement a new constitution that critics say will indefinitely hand power over to President Faure Gnassingbe.

Gnassingbe took office in 2005, replacing his father, and has been in power ever since. This new constitution upsets the current status quo in the country's electoral system. The election of a head of state through a parliamentary system will be shirked, while the presidential office will now be ceremonial, and vested with little power. Instead, power will be transferred to a newly established position of the President of the Council of Ministers — one occupied by President Gnassingbe.

What's at stake here?

Opposition parties and observers say the new electoral system will effectively make it impossible for the Togolese people to change their head of state. Areport from the Africa Center For Strategic Studies corroborates that this move is strategic and isn't in the interests of the Togolese people.

"The 2025 "elections" are thus the culmination of a years-long strategy to unwind Togo's fledgling democratic institutions. In the process, the UNIR also removes the legal means to exercise basic rights of expression, assembly and suffrage. While this may seem like a political victory for the UNIR, these actions are likely setting the country toward greater instability," the report observes.

Under the new constitution, the office of President of The Council Of Ministers essentially operates as a prime minister, granting its occupant decision-making authority for civil and military matters relating to the government. The leader of whichever party has the most seats in the National Assembly will emerge as the PCM. As it stands, the current ruling party, the Union for the Republic (UNIR), has 108 of the 113 seats in the National Assembly via an opaque constitutional revision. Under this new structure, President Gnassingbe will have a 6-year term, which can be extended indefinitely.

Togo is currently one of the poorest countries in West Africa, with a 45 percent poverty rate and lean foreign investment, on top of few employment opportunities and lackluster developments.

According to the World Bank, "High inflation and disparities in economic opportunities between rural and urban areas have continued to hinder progress in reducing poverty and inequality." Togo's human capital index score is 0.43, indicating that children born in Togo today will only be 43 percent as productive in adulthood as they could be if they had access to quality healthcare, education and nutrition.

Experts say the country's stagnant government has limited the introduction of new administrative policies, keeping the country perpetually underdeveloped.

What the opposition is saying

Some opposition parties say they will not be voting in the senatorial elections. The National Alliance for Change (ANC) and the Democratic Forces for the Republic (FDR) have registered their displeasure, saying they will boycott the elections. "The last legislative and regional elections were marred by massive fraud and serious irregularities. In the absence of guarantees of transparency, independence and fairness, it is clear that the senatorial elections announced can only be a new masquerade," the ANC said in a statement last year.

Observers have also berated the Economic Community of West African States for being handicapped by its protocols, making intervening difficult. "Ecowas' Failure to do more is likely in part due to its awkward approach to democracy," Jessica Moody, a researcher on political risk and peacebuilding in Africa, writes inForeign Policy.

"The bloc is underpinned by the Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance, adopted in 2001, which includes a mechanism for responding to undemocratic changes of power and requires democratic governance, elections, neutrality of the judiciary and impartiality of the security forces in member states."

With an outcome likely to favor Gnassingbe, the fate and future of Togo's democracy hangs in the balance as the country shifts into what will technically be its fifth republic.