No Surprises With Outcome of Rwandan Elections

In preliminary results, the Rwandan electorate has overwhelmingly decided that their long-term President Paul Kagame is fit to lead them for another five years.

A photo of Paul Kagame casting his votes in the 2024 Rwandan presidential and parliamentary elections.

Incumbent President of Rwanda and Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) presidential candidate Paul Kagame reacts after casting his ballot at the SOS Kinyinya polling station in Kigali, on July 15, 2024.

Photo by Luis Tato/AFP via Getty Images.

Rwanda’s National Electoral Commission has released preliminary results for the 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections, to the surprise of no one.

With over 79 percent of votes counted, incumbent President Paul Kagame has 99.15 percent of the vote, a resounding victory that grants him another five-year term as president. “The trust you give is beyond explanation. Those high numbers are not just numbers. Even if it was 100 percent, it wouldn’t be just numbers. It is that trust, that is the most important thing,” Kagametold his supporters who had packed into the ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF)’s headquarters in Kigali's Intare Arena.

The energy at the arena, which also hosted a watch party, was jubilant as many broke into Rwandan traditional dance to celebrate the poll numbers.

Although final results will not be announced until July 27, Kagame’s victory is assured given that his opposition candidates were only able to capture a slim percentage of the vote. Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda (DGPR) managed 0.53 percent, while independent candidate Philippe Mpayimana only won 0.32 percent.

“Dear Rwandans, in the past moment we have received the preliminary results released by the NEC. We want to communicate that we have accepted them and congratulate the winner H.E. Paul Kagame,” Habineza said to the media as he watched the results at the Olympic Hotel in Kigali.

With a 98 percent turnout, Kagame’s supporters see the president’s crushing victory as a firm endorsement of his leadership, and of his transformation of Rwanda since he first took office in 2000.

“Rwandans have made their choice. They have chosen to stick with President Paul Kagame. Both the choice and size of victory were never in doubt,” an opinion column by Kagame’s aide Joseph Rwagatare said. “It is easy to see why. He has led them to great things. In electing him, they chose the things that matter to them most: unity and progress, dignity and prosperity, and peace and security,” Rwagatare added.

But opponents and critics had said the elections were far from free and fair, with any real opposition and threat to his reelection stifled. However, National Electoral Commission Chairwoman Oda Gasinzigwa said that more than 300 international observers were present in Rwanda. The African Union observers announced that they would deliver their preliminary statements on the election from their Heads of Observer Mission on Wednesday.

In the 2017 election, the president secured nearly 99 percent of the vote. He pulled 93 percent of the vote in 2010 and 95 percent in 2003. As Kagame faced his supporters on Tuesday morning, he let them know that he was ready to get back to work serving the Rwandan people.

“We work together to face problems, fix those which can be fixed,” he said. “And for those which can’t be fixed at the moment, we build additional resources that will allow us to pass through them.”

Over the course of 2024, 20 African countries will be holding elections. For more election coverage, check out our Election Tracker.


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