Guinea-Bissau President Changes Stance on Reelection Amid Term Limit Controversy

Guinea-Bissau’s President Umaro Sissoco Embalo has announced that he will be running for a second term in the country’s delayed general election. It’s a 180 from when he previously stated that he wouldn’t be on the ballot, based on advice from his wife.

The backtrack comes amidst civil dissatisfaction to the general elections being postponed from last November, as well as controversies over when Embalo should exit the presidency, with opposition contending that he should already be out of office.

Embalo returned to the West African country on Monday after wrapping up official visits to Hungary and Azerbaijan, as well as being hosted at the Kremlin by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Embalo's visits, highlighted by comments on strengthening diplomatic relations, occurred under the dark cloud of a tense political environment at home.

After postponing the general elections scheduled for last November, Embalo's governmentannounced Nov. 30, 2025, as the new date. However, opposition parties have stated that the extension falls well beyond the date Embalo is meant to vacate office, although a recent Supreme Court ruling extended the president's time in office.

On Feb. 27, 2020, Embalo held a swearing-in ceremony after results were announced that he defeated Domingos Simoes of the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) in a second-round runoff. The PAIGC, which had ruled Guinea-Bissau since gaining independence in 1974, alleged that irregularities and initiated court proceedings marred the electoral process. Amidst the uncertainty, Embalo, a former army general, was sworn in, even as PAIGCtermed his entry into office a coup.

Guinea-Bissau has been long plagued by political instability, defined by a succession of coups. The 2019 elections were meant to show that a peaceful power transition could take place in its nascent democracy. So far, Embalo hasn't brought about stability or improved the country's political situation – he’s dissolved parliament twice and has been ruling by decree for over a year now.

On taking office, armed guards patrolled ministry officers and intimidated former Prime Minister Aristides Gomes to get him to resign. Cipriano Cassamá, who lawmakers chose as interim president pending the Supreme Court's ruling, resigned after one day, citing threats to his life.

In 2022, Embalo dissolved parliament and arrested many opposition politicians, citing an attempted coup. According to reports, this dissolution was caused by Parliament'srefusal to lift the immunity of several government officials, including Simoes, Embalo's opponent, at the last presidential election. Six months after a coalition led by PAIGCwon an absolute majority at the parliamentary polls, Embalo again shut down the legislature in late 2023, citing another attempted coup following clashes between National Guard members and the Presidential Guard's special forces.

Guinea-Bissau runs a semi-presidential system, with significant powers vested in its legislature. Observers believe Embalo seeks to implement constitutional changes that would increase presidential power, which dealt the 2023 legislative elections a considerable blow.

Currently, the path to credible elections in Guinea-Bissau is marred by the alleged undue influence of Embalo and his government on institutions like the electoral commission and the Supreme Court. In 2023, José Pedro Samburesigned as the Supreme Court's president, while six judges are currently subject to disciplinary proceedings.

Earlier this month, the Supreme Court ruled that Embalo's term lasts till Sept. 4, 2025, stating that it ruled on the election result dispute on that date in 2020. Still, the November election date would keep Embalo in office beyond the Supreme Court's date. The opposition has vowed to paralyze the country's economic activities through strikes and protests until the election dates are brought forward.