What You Need to Know About the Situation Between Ethiopia, Somalia and Somaliland Right Now

Somalia has rejected further deliberation over Ethiopia’s port deal with Somaliland. This was made known in Uganda yesterday, where regional heads gathered for the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) summit to contain the spiking tensions in the Horn of Africa.

It’s the latest update in the ongoing Ethiopia-Somalia feud. On January 1, 2024, a Memorandum of Understanding was signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland in Addis Ababa. The agreement grants landlocked Ethiopia access to a Red Sea naval port in exchange for recognition of Somaliland as a country.

The government of Somalia had rejected the maritime pact, seeing the agreement as a geopolitical affront on itself. The conflict is brewing fresh disputes as time passes, raising security concerns in the region and violence if the situation goes unresolved.

It has also come with geopolitical stakes, not only for regional actors, but for external players. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is backing Ethiopia’s port deal with Somaliland as it is looking to diversify its investments in ports and expand its influence in the Horn of Africa.

We break down the involvement of the regional states in the conflict, the historical undertones and how it’s shaping diplomatic concerns.

Why does Ethiopia want a port deal with Somaliland?

Ethiopia has been landlocked since 1993, after the coastal region of Eritrea gained independence — leaving Ethiopia landlocked, without port access and economically stunted.

With the country’s growing population, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has pushed for regaining maritime access as a strategic economic objective. This has found the country turning to Somaliland, after the minister’s appeal was rejected by Djibouti, Somalia, and Eritrea.

The contentious deal will grant Ethiopia leasing rights to the Red Sea coastline in Somaliland for the next 50 years.

Why did Somaliland agree to the deal?

A British protectorate until 1960, Somaliland and Somalia have both existed as separate regions. Italian colonialism in Somalia had forced Somaliland to merge with Somalia.

The emergence of the Somali National Movement, a rebel group, championed the secession of Somaliland from Somalia in 1991. And although Somaliland is now an independent state, it is yet to be recognized by any foreign power, including the African Union.

This has limited Somaliland’s endeavors in international markets. The maritime accord holds much weight for Somaliland as Ethiopia would be the first country to recognize it as an independent state.

Why is this conflict-worthy for Somalia?

Somalia still considers Somaliland as part of its territory. Somaliland gaining independence from Somalia had been violent, a war fought along ethnic lines. Somalia views Ethiopia’s port ambitions as a “hostile move” that could plunge the region into instability.

More than that, the situation has dredged up the history of both countries as longtime political rivals. Going back to the 14th century, the nature of their conflict has been largely territorial. One of the most modern manifestations was the Ogaden War between 1977 and 1978. Referred to as the Ethio-Somali War, it was a conflict over the Ogaden region situated between the countries and claimed by both.

Can the conflict devolve into armed violence?

It’s possible. Somalia has revealed that it’s prepared to go to war with Ethiopia over the port deal. Furthermore, the tensions between the countries could be an opportunity for Somali militant group Al-Shabaab to further entrench and plunge the region into violence.

What is the international community saying?

The U.S. has said that it’s “troubled” by the deal. Backing Somalia, it believes the country's territorial integrity and sovereignty should be respected.

Several Arab League member countries including Egypt have opposed the port agreement, expressing support for Somalia. The European Union and African Union have done likewise, the latter reiterating its strong commitment to preserving the territorial integrity of all member states.