Zimbabwe President’s Term Extension Bid Sparks Political Tension

The proposal has faced severe backlash, not just from opposition parties but also within the ruling party, and has led to a brewing factional war in the Zanu-PF. "The faction aligned with Vice President Constantino Chiwenga is saying it's wrong that the current president must step down," political analyst Lazarus Sauti tells OkayAfrica.

It's reminiscent of the 2017 coup that deposed long-time ruler Robert Mugabe, which saw Mnangagwa replace the former president with the help of the defense forces led by Chiwenga. Also integral to the coup were civil demonstrations supporting the army's actions.

Geza has called for a civil protest next Monday, March 31, saying the president has failed at his duties and harbors corrupt allies. However, his calls may be doing little to galvanize a disillusioned public that is against Mnangagwa's term extension bid. The economic situation in Zimbabwe is dire, emblematic in its latest failed attempt at a new currency, which may contribute to apathy towards any protests.

"We have a high inflation rate, businesses are closing in the formal market, and the economy is underperforming. Many people are making a living in the informal sector, so by participating in the protest, they might be disrupting their means of survival," Sauti says. Meanwhile, the police announced the deployment of officers to ensure "economic activities [go on] without any disturbances."

Below, Sauti gives an in-depth insight into President Mnangagwa's term extension bid, the complexities of potential civil protests, and more.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

OkayAfrica: How's the conversation about the president's term being increased affecting the atmosphere in Zimbabwe?

Sauti: The country is quite tense. We have issues with the Comrade Blessed Geza, who is promising a coup on the 31st of March. Our constitution was enacted in 2013, and it's clear on presidential term limits: you serve your two terms and leave. The constitution is also clear in its provisions for what should be done in the event of a term limit extension. There has to be a public referendum.

For Zanu-PF, the issue with the referendum is twofold: it is expensive financially and in terms of the high standards required, and they are likely to lose. Instead, they prefer to extend the election period through parliament without amending the constitution. They argue that since parliamentarians represent the people, the public's voice supports extending the term from five to seven years.

The faction aligned with Vice President Chiwenga says the current president must step down. So we have someone like Geza, a war veteran [recently expelled from Zanu-PF] who utilizes social media to demand President Mnangagwa steps down because he is failing to run the country and is protecting corrupt people. Yesterday, Geza named people he claims are benefiting directly from the corrupt system. He is urging Zimbabweans to march on the 31st of March to demand the removal of President Mnangagwa.

What's the general public's mood towards a potential term extension?

Many people are against [term extension] because of our previous relationship with the former president, the late Robert Mugabe (in office from 1980 to 2017). People are saying we should not even consider extending the presidential term limit; those two terms are long enough for someone to implement their policies and lead the country. Many in the general public, civil society, and opposition parties are against the term extension.

However, Zanu-PF wants to use its majority in parliament to change the provision, and many people are unhappy about it. When Geza mentioned the names of people he said are directly benefiting from corrupt activities in Zimbabwe, he also said they are pushing Mnangagwa to extend his term limit for selfish reasons. According to Geza, that alone is justification enough to remove and replace the president with Vice President Chiwenga.

When Mnangagwa came into power in 2017, there were rumors of a pact between him and Chiwenga. The understanding was that Mnangagwa would serve two terms and then pass the baton to his second-in-command. However, he is now sidelining Chiwenga and pushing for an extension until 2030. This internal conflict within Zanu-PF has increased factionalism, negatively impacting Zimbabwe's socioeconomic activities.

What could the march look like if it happens?

There are different angles to the march. After the 2017 protests, the general feeling in Zimbabwe is that Zanu-PF used people; they used the civil society movement and opposition parties in the country to topple Mugabe. Afterward, these groups were sidelined or disregarded, particularly concerning political appointments. As a result, there is a growing concern within certain sectors of civil society that people should exercise caution to avoid being used again.

I think that might affect the march organized by Comrade Geza. Another feeling is that there is nothing for people in this issue. Additionally, there is a prevailing feeling that this issue doesn't truly benefit the people; it is merely a factional conflict within Zanu-PF that should be resolved internally. We have a high inflation rate, businesses are closing in the formal market, and the economy is underperforming. Many people rely on the informal sector for their livelihoods, and participating in the march could disrupt their means of survival.

Or they might want to help Geza because the people can use the country's situation as a grievance against the leadership. The biggest problem here in Zimbabwe is that things are not good politically or economically, and we know that the leadership is not doing enough to transform the lives of the general citizenry. These issues might trigger people to join the march. Is it going to be as big as 2017? I don't think so.

So, the country is in wait-and-see mode?

Exactly, because most people are asking about the objectives of the march. Who is going to lead it? Because Comrade Geza is in hiding as we speak. Is he going to lead the march, or are there actors who are part of the process? Are we marching to remove the president, to send a statement to the president, or to protest against those benefiting from corruption? After that, what's next?

We are waiting to see what will happen on March 31st—how the march will be organized, who will participate, and how the security forces in the country will respond. Zimbabwe is kind of a military state, and if you don't have the support of the military, things might be politically difficult for you.

That's true because African governments don't take kindly to protests, even if they are civic rights.

The constitution of Zimbabwe, especially section 59, is very clear regarding people's rights to protest. It provides that [right]. The issue that I want to underline is that rights should be exercised peacefully, meaning that people who march should have written permission from the police to avoid violence. Now, who is going to apply for this documentation? Once we have a clear answer, it may be easier to say whether the security operatives will support the march or not. But then, I think if the march is going to proceed, the police will allow it because of the sensitivities associated with it.

We are now seeing police cars moving around Harare; maybe it's a tactic to scare protesters ahead of that date.