Will US Sanctions Have an Impact on the War in Sudan?

The announcement was made after the U.S.determined that the RSF has committed crimes amounting to genocide,including "killing tens of thousands, displacing 12 million Sudanese, triggering widespread starvation [...] denial of humanitarian relief [...] ethnically motivated killings and sexual violence as a weapon of war."

"The United States continues to call for an end to this conflict that is putting innocent civilian lives in jeopardy,"saidDeputy Secretary of the TreasuryWallyAdeyemo. "The Treasury Department remains committed to using every tool available to hold accountable those responsible for violating the human rights of the Sudanese people."

The announcement was made 633 days into the war between the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). Sudanese activists and civil rights groups welcomed it as long overdue but remain skeptical that the sanctions will have a tangible impact beyond a symbolic blow to the RSF's image.

"The sanctions stop [Hemedti] from going to the U.S. (I doubt he has plans to) and freeze all his U.S.-based assets (he has none)," activist SaraElhassanwrote on her Instagram account. "Sudan's last military dictatorship was sanctioned for 20 years, and it did nothing to those in power."

"The consequences need to be spelled out. Otherwise, it's a gesture rather than a commitment," Dr. EvaKhair, founder and director of the Sudan Transnational Consortium, an international network of Sudanese professionals conducting peace-building and advocacy, tells OkayAfrica.

"Without designating the external backers, especially [Hemedti's] main funder, the UAE, what does this really mean? How is this embedded into policy?" she continues. "You need to address the states sponsoring this terror."

While the adoption of the term "genocide" helps advocates exert more pressure in international fora, Dr. Khair says that genocide determinations always come too late. In the case of Sudan, it has come too late for thousands.

U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration announced the sanctions 13 days before leaving office, placing the responsibility of enforcement on the incoming Trump administration. "Biden's administration is trying to evoke a Pax Americana era and give a signal to the international community," says Dr. Khair. "But the Trump administration does not care about Sudan. Their interests are making deals with the backers of the conflict."

In August 2023, the Aligned for Advancing Lifesaving and Peace in Sudan (ALPS) Group was formed in Geneva to take immediate action. It is unclear whether the U.S. will continue to have an envoy or whether the ALPS effort will die out, making further space for the UAE to assert itself in the country unchecked.

Meanwhile, a Turkish initiative has offered tomediate between the Sudanese military government and the UAE. "If the details that we have heard are true, the deal would bring principal amnesty to the belligerents and award the UAE a carte blanche to reconstruct and get its tentacles deeply into Sudan under the disguise of protecting its assets," warns Dr. Khair.

Considering the silence around external players' agendas in mediation efforts, activists and civil rights groups are calling for more drastic measures. Possible further steps could be designating the RSF as a terrorist group, sanctioning their outside backers and theviolators of the Darfur arms embargo — Iran, Russia, Turkey, Serbia, China and the UAE — and immediate action taken by the UN Security Council to protect civilians.

The RSF denies these accusations, despite the overwhelming datadocumentation by the Yale Humanitarian Research Lab, and rejects these measures. "America previously punished the great African freedom fighter Nelson Mandela, which was wrong. Today, it is rewarding those who started the war by punishing (RSF leader) General Mohammad Hamdan Dagalo, which is also wrong," an RSF spokespersonreportedly commented.

For now, Dr. Khair is not convinced that the sanctions will significantly impact RSF operations beyond temporarily hurting them. "There are other actors who can furnish the RSF with what they need," she says. "At the end of the day, there's a whole system out there that doesn't involve the U.S."