Young Tunisians Hold More Fears Than Hopes for the Upcoming Presidential Election

Four young Tunisian activists speak to OkayAfrica about their hopes and fears in this contested election. “I say that people won't vote, because in the last two elections — the parliamentary election and the referendum for the new constitution — only 10 percent of the people who are registered to vote went,” says Khaled Ghrairi whose activism centers around LGBTQ+ rights, immigration, and anti-racism.

Ghrairi is boycotting the election. “Firstly, participating in this circus will give it more legitimacy and I know for sure that my vote doesn't count,” he says. “Secondly, there is no candidate to vote for.” Nina Mahjoubi agrees. “No candidate whatsoever has a real project of actual social and economic reforms,” she says. “None of them comes from a democratic background.”

S.M., who asked to be anonymous for fear of being targeted, supports Ayachi Zammel, one of the three eligible candidates. “He represents the kind of change I want for Tunisia, but, as expected, he has also been unjustly arrested— a common tactic used against any potential challengers to the regime,” they say. In the last two weeks, Zammel has received two prison sentences for alleged document falsification.

S.M. adds: “Despite the risks, I intend to vote for him as a statement against the ongoing injustice [...] but I am reconsidering daily. I feel a constant tension between my desire to make a stand and a deep-seated fear that voting against the current president could have repercussions. There's a lingering gut feeling that it might be a trap, and that voting for an opponent could put me on a dangerous record. However, I don’t want fear to dictate my actions or allow a dictator to win unchallenged. This internal struggle weighs heavily on me every day.”

Civil society activist and content creator Hakim Fekih intends to cast his vote, too. “There is no other option,” he says. “Because the people [who support the president] will go vote. But will the opposition bring people to vote? That’s a really serious question we don’t have an answer to.”

All four agree that this election is a farce, but Fekih considers the campaigning period a central moment for political life. “I see the elections more as a tool that will allow us to make people aware and summarize what [Saied] did for the past three or four years, and that will make people think that he might not be the best president we can have,” he says. “I think it will be a long process in order to reach the point where there will be a majority against him.”

Immigration and scapegoating Sub-Saharan migrants

One of the reasons Saied still enjoys popular support is that he has centered his politics around populism and fear-mongering racism, scapegoating Sub-Saharan migrants for Tunisia’s economic crisis.

“For the past two years, immigration has been one of the top topics when it comes to politics and decision-making in Tunisia,” says Ghrairi. “It’s absurd, because somehow people started to perceive themselves as white and being threatened by ‘Africans’ that want to change the demographic of the country.”

What happens if Kais Saied wins the election?

S.M. agrees: “The reelection of the president would be disastrous for African migrants. Racism, already immensely prevalent, would likely intensify, and the followers of Saied may become even more violent and hostile. Tunisia would become an even more unsafe and inhospitable place for migrants.”

Fekih stresses that geopolitics must be taken into account when analyzing the impact of Saied’s anti-immigrant rhetoric. “France and Italy are supporting the president because they give him money and he stops migration,” he says. “They’re in an uncomfortable position, because on one hand, they are happy that he's stopping migration, but on the other hand, there are all these issues of human rights; there are NGOs saying that the French government and the EU are financing a government that is throwing people in the desert.”

Ghrairi agrees that the international community cannot be counted on to defend human rights in Tunisia. “Since the genocide started in Palestine, we saw for sure that the international community do not give a shit about the international order, and they won’t put pressure on a regime that takes a turn, because they only care about stopping immigrants from coming to the EU,” he says.

If Saied wins the polls, the activists think that he will continue on his authoritarian course as long as no one stops him. “I anticipate the complete erosion of free speech and civil liberties, and our economy will continue to crumble,” says S.M.. “The rights of Tunisians will be further stripped away, and the atmosphere will become increasingly oppressive and dangerous for anyone who dares to dissent.”

Worst case scenarios

When asked about their worst-case scenarios, Fekih returns to the possibility of Saied going against an annulment of the electoral results — a scenario that is becoming a reality with the approval of the aforementioned bill. “That would mean that there are no more normal laws in the country,” he says. “He would be the only law. And that might be the start of a failing state.”

Ghrairi sees extreme danger in the rising xenophobia. “People are dying in the desert, it's bad. I think it may turn into a civil war at some point, because of the crimes that are being committed,” he says. “You see Sub-Saharan Africans raiding Tunisian houses, because they are hungry and subjected to racism. And then people say that ‘all Africans are bad’ and ‘we don't want immigrants’ and there is a lot of tension between the migrants and the locals.”

To fight the incumbent regime from bringing these dark predictions into being, the opposition is organizing in the hope of preserving democracy. “Tunisian civil society is moving to mobilize its forces, which led to the formation of The Tunisian Network of Rights and Freedom, a social movement made by human rights organizations such as IWATCH, Intersection, the feminist dynamic and political parties,” says Mahjoubi.

But S.M. considers the number of opposition protesters too low to have a significant impact. “The opposition is fragmented and struggling under the weight of the oppression, making it difficult for them to mount a forceful resistance.”

Ghrairi predicts three future scenarios. “The first possibility is that people will take to the streets in another revolution. That will 100 percent not happen because people are tired and afraid of instability,” he says. “The second option is a military coup. And the third is a failure of Saied’s government and maybe, magically, someone else winning.”

“Nobody knows where we’re headed,” says Fekih. “The situation is very unstable and unclear that nobody can predict what will happen in the next few weeks.”

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