Political Arrests Threaten “Fragile Peace” in South Sudan

There are new fears of widespread conflict in South Sudan following the arrests of several politicians by government forces. The minister of peacebuilding and secretary general of the National Transitional Committee, Stephen Par Kuol, was arrested by the National Security Service this afternoon.

Puok Both Baluang, spokesperson for First Vice PresidentRiek Machar,shared the development on X. Kuol's arrest is just the latest in a week that has seen the arrests of several prominent politicians allied with Machar.

Petroleum minister Puot Kang Chol and deputy head of the army, Gabriel Duop Lam, were amongst several politicians arrested. Baluang said that no reasons were provided for the arrests,telling the BBC that Machar's party, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement in Opposition, does not know how their officials are or where they are.

In a statement earlier this week, Baluang had decried the deployment of armed soldiers to Machar's residence from late Sunday night to Monday. "These actions erode confidence and trust among the parties and jeopardize efforts to de-escalate the current violence that erupted in Nasir County of the Upper State Nile."

The arrests of Machar-allied politicians have been linked to recent fighting in Nasir between state forces and the White Army militia, which mainly comprises armed fighters from the Nuer ethnic group – where Machar is from.

The White Army fought alongside Machar against President Salva Kiir's forces in the five-year war that happened two years after South Sudan's independence in 2011. The war resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands and displaced over 2.5 million. It ended with a fragile peace deal in 2018. However, armed groups continue to carry out fringe activities, with observers saying the country could be tipped over with any large-scale escalation.

The South Sudanese government has dismissed any notions that a war is brewing; however, Daniel Akech Thiong, senior analyst on South Sudan at the International Crisis Group,told Reuters that the country's fragile peace is "at risk of collapsing."

Last year, South Sudan was scheduled to finally hold its first election, butit was postponed, with the government citing security concerns and financial constraints.