Paul Kagame is Predicted to Win the Rwandan Election; But What About the Opposition?

In the 2017 election, the president secured nearly 99 percent of the vote, and he is expected to achieve similar margins this time. He previously triumphed with 93 percent of the vote in 2010 and 95 percent in 2003.

“Our past achievements do not make us complacent but strengthen us to build and accomplish even more,” Kagame told his supporters during a campaign stop in Kigali last month, citing the economic growth and stability he has brought to the country. “You did not front me for this [role] to leave me in it. We are together in this.”

Although Kagame is running against two opponents — Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda (DGPR), and Philippe Mpayimana, an independent candidate – critics have said that the ruling party has stamped out any opposition that is considered a real threat to Kagame’s hold on power.

Despite losing to Kagame in the last election, and their limited chances next week, Habineza and Mpayimama have committed to seeing the 2024 election through. Who are they?

Frank Habineza

Habineza, the 47-year-old leader of DGPR, is no stranger to the presidential race. He secured less than one percent of the vote in the 2017 polls, but remains undeterred in his pursuit of the presidency.

“I will be the president of the Republic of Rwanda,” he told supporters during a campaign stop.

“We believe in our ideas. Our ideas are strong and transformative, aimed at changing people’s lives. Therefore, we believe that we shall win,” he added.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Frank Habineza (@frank.habineza)

Habineza has faced numerous challenges throughout his political career, including imprisonment, alleged death threats and exile. Nonetheless, he has persevered and has been a Member of Parliament’s Chamber of Deputies since 2018. As the founding president DGPR, Habineza believes his party is in a much stronger state for this election. He has pledged to lower the retirement age to 60 and increase internet connectivity in the country.

"We have achievements to present to the voters,” he said. “This is a big difference that makes us believe that this election will be much different and much better."

Philippe Mpayimana

Mpayimana, a former journalist, is once again running as an independent candidate in the 2024 presidential election. In the last election, he was only able to secure 0.72 percent of the vote.

Even with the low numbers, Mpayimana is still determined to offer the Rwandan population a new vision for the future. "I want to convince the population that there is something new coming," he campaigned last month.

Currently, Mpayimana serves as a senior expert in charge of community engagement at the Ministry of National Unity and Civic Engagement (MINUBUMWE), a position he has held since 2021. With a background in journalism dating back to 1990, Mpayimana has worked in various media houses and holds a master’s degree in languages, history and geography from the Université de Cergy Pontoise in Paris, as well as a master’s degree in journalism from Ecole Supérieure de Journalisme de Paris.

Other Paul Kagame critics and presidential hopefuls

This year, a total of nine applications to stand for president were received by Rwanda's National Electoral Commission. Yet Kagame, Habineza and Mpayimana were the only three candidates cleared to run. To many, the two opponents are the least threatening.

Since the country’s last presidential election in 2017, at least five opposition members and four critics and journalists have died or disappeared in suspicious circumstances, according to a report by Human Rights Watch. Several have been awaiting trial for years, while others have been convicted of offenses and sit behind bars.

“It is increasingly difficult to remain blind to the jailing — and even the disappearances and killings — of those who criticize or challenge the Rwandan government’s power,” Kagame critic Paul Rusesabagina, whose story was profiled in the “Hotel Rwanda” movie, wrote in a New York Times opinion piece in April. “Independent journalists, human rights advocates and opposition political parties are nearly absent from the landscape of Rwandan civil society today. This is not a reconciled or inclusive society; it is an authoritarian state.”

Diane Rwigara, a long-time critic of Kagame, was again barred from running in this year’s election. The electoral commission claimed that she had failed to show she had no criminal record. The electoral commission also said that she failed to show enough support nationwide to stand.

“After all the time, work and effort I put in, I am very disappointed to hear that I am not on the list of presidential candidates. [President Kagame] why won't you let me run?” she accused the president in a post on X. “This is the second time you cheated me out of my right to campaign.”

Another vocal critic, Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza also blames the government for preventing her from running. In April, she appealed to the East African Court of Justice (EACJ) seeking the re-establishment of her civic rights to run for office after having been jailed in Rwanda for eight years.

"I want to get my civic rights back,” she told RFI. "My party cannot be registered. Three party members have been killed. Four are missing. And nine are in prison. There is literally no space for opposition in Rwanda."

The Rwandan constitution permits Kagame to seek re-election until 2035. At 66, the long-time leader shows no signs of slowing down or selecting a successor.

Over the course of 2024, 20 African countries will be holding elections. For more election coverage, check out our Election Tracker.