Will M23’s Ceasefire Hold? Uncertainty Looms Over Eastern Congo

On Monday, Feb 3, the M23 rebel group declared a unilateral ceasefire in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC/M23) announced the decision in an official statement, citing humanitarian reasons.

The move comes after a week of intense fighting that the United Nations (UN) reports left at least900 people dead and displaced hundreds of thousands in and around the city of Goma.

Similar ceasefires in the past have been short-lived. M23 has declared unilateral ceasefires multiple times since its resurgence in 2022, the latest before Tuesday's events being inAugust 2024. These announcements came after significant military offensives, often coinciding with international pressure, territorial gains, or humanitarian crises.

In many cases, fighting resumed shortly after, raising concerns that these ceasefires serve as tactical pauses for the group to regroup, rearm, or consolidate control over newly captured territories.

Claude Gatebuke, executive director of the African Great Lakes Action Network, told OkayAfrica, "This is a common tactic of Rwanda to deflect attention while they regroup. Each time M23 declares a ceasefire, it's typically after they've secured key areas and need time to reorganize without the scrutiny that comes with active conflict."

Gatebuke highlighted previous ceasefires that followed large-scale assaults in North Kivu province, such as inMarch 2023, after heavy fighting near Rutshuru, and inDecember 2023, following territorial gains around Masisi.

The current pause comes after M23'scapture of Goma, a city of two million people and a strategic humanitarian hub in Eastern DRC.According to the UN, the fighting has overwhelmed hospitals, displaced thousands, led to the looting of aid warehouses, and fueled widespread sexual violence. The crisis is compounded by the risk of disease outbreaks, including mpox, cholera, and measles, due to disrupted medical services.

The Congolese government has not issued an official response to the ceasefire offer but has previously expressed skepticism toward M23's truce claims. Al Jazeera'sCatherine Soireported from Nairobi, stating, "Government officials have been saying time and again that it's not going to respond to anything that M23 is saying. They do not trust any ceasefire agreements are going to bear any fruit."

The conflict has drawn in regional and international actors. The Southern African Development Community (SADC), including South African forces, has deployed troops to support the Congolese military, while the UN maintains a peacekeeping presence through its MONUSCO mission.

The South African government states that its forces are present to support regional stability under the UN mandate. "The members of the South African National Defence Force that are in the DRC are part of both SADC and United Nations efforts to bring peace and protect thousands of lives that are constantly threatened by the conflict in the DRC," said President Cyril Ramaphosa in astatement last week.

Rwanda's role in the conflict remains a point of contention. Whilethe UN reports that Rwanda has deployed between 3,000 and 4,000 troops to support the M23 rebel group, Rwanda's government firmly denies these allegations. When CNN pressed Rwandan President Paul Kagame on this issueduring a February 3 interview, he gave an ambiguous response. Asked directly whether Rwandan troops were present in Eastern DRC, Kagame replied, "I don't know," before pivoting to emphasize that Rwanda would take action to protect its interests: "If you want to ask me, is there a problem in Congo that concerns Rwanda and that Rwanda would do anything to protect itself? I would say 100 percent."

Burundian-born NGO activist Judicaelle offered insight into the complexity of theDRC-Rwanda tensions to OkayAfrica. Speaking under partial anonymity to protect herself and her family, she traced the conflict's origins to historical Hutu-Tutsi dynamics and Rwanda's economic interests in the region. "Rwanda has been exporting cobalt out of Congo. Every time President Kagame is asked, he does not deny this," she said.

Judicaelle also noted that the roots of the current conflict extend beyond recent events. "What people don't know about the genocide of the Tutsis in 1994 is that this actually goes way back to the 1950s." The Hutu-led Rwandan Revolution of 1959 saw the overthrow of the Tutsi monarchy, triggering widespread ethnic violence, including the mass killings of Tutsis, which forced thousands to flee to neighboring countries like Burundi and Uganda.

Monday's ceasefire precedes a regional summit scheduled forFriday, Feb. 7 to Saturday, Feb. 8, inDar es Salaam, Tanzania, where leaders from the DRC, Rwanda, South Africa, and other East African Community and SADC nations are expected to discuss the crisis. The G7 Group of Seven foreign ministers hasalso called for renewed negotiations and unimpeded humanitarian access to affected areas.