Dissolution of Guinean Government May Stall Planned Democratic Transition

Two-and-a-half years after the coup that ousted former president, Alpha Conde, a coalition of top military leaders in Guinea has dissolved the country’s interim administration. Announced through a presidential decree broadcast on state television, the presidency’s secretary general, Brig. Gen. Amara Camaradidn’t state the reason for the dissolution or reveal a timeline for the formation of a new government.

Led by Prime Minister Bernard Goumou, the dissolved government was appointed by coup leader, Col. Mamady Doumbouya, in a cabinet reshuffle just before the first anniversary of the 2021 coup. The reshuffle happened at a time when dissenting voices began to question the junta’s commitment to returning power to an elected, civilian government.

The junta instructed the ministers in the now-dissolved government to surrender their passports and official vehicles, and has also ordered that their accounts be frozen. It has also directed security agencies to seal the country’s borders until the handovers are complete. In the decree, Camara also stated that lower level officials are to manage state ministries until a new government is put in place.

In his statement after assuming power, Doumbouya claimed that the coup was in service of the people of Guinea, removing a president that was obsessed with holding on to power perpetually even as half of its population languished in poverty. “We will no longer entrust politics to one man. We will entrust it to the people,” he said, with a Guinean flag draped over his shoulders. This gave many hope that a transition into true democracy would be sooner rather than later.

After international pressure, and a 36-month transition proposal was rejected by regional body ECOWAS, Doumbouya and the junta finally announced a 24-month transition period that would culminate in the ushering in of a democratically elected government by December 2024, at the latest. Now, this dissolution of the interim government has put those plans in jeopardy.

This situation in Guinea is reminiscent of Sudan, which has been rocked by civil war after the military government failed to keep its end of the bargain for a peaceful transition into civilian rule. Just a month before it was to hand over the reins of the Transitional Sovereign Council, the Junta carried out a successful coup to oust the civilian political leaders.

In the past year, anti-junta sentiments in Guinea have grown louder, even though protests are banned and protesters have been met with deadly force. It remains to be seen what effect this dissolution will have on the public, however, it doesn’t seem like it’s a positive step in preparing for elections sometime this year, which is what many Guineans are hoping for.

Even with the rising impatience for the junta, it was expected that Doumbouya would hand over power later this year. Unlike Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, three junta-led countries who exited ECOWAS and recently announced the formation of a new confederation, Guinea seemed to be in much more progressive hands. However, this new development may cause many to rethink, and possibly lead to civil unrest.