What’s At Stake in the Upcoming Elections in Chad?

Déby’s main opposition is Prime Minister Succès Masra, the leader of Les Transformateurs political party. A year ago, Masra was in exile in the U.S., alleging that he was being hunted by the government for being an outspoken critic and for playing a key role in the deadly October 2022 protests, where citizens demanded a return to democracy. He returned after signing a deal with the government and accepted the prime minister position, one of the most surprising events in Chad politics of recent.

In early March, Masra indicated his interest in running for president, making him the only noteworthy candidate that can challenge Déby, who’s heading to the polls as most expected to win. Several opposition parties have already called for a boycott of the elections, saying it is a sham, and a way for Déby to continue a “dynastic dictatorship,” while pointing to the happenings of the past three years.

Earlier this year, opposition leader Yaya Dillo Djérou, was killed in a clash between government forces and his political party’s members in their headquarters. Djérou, who was seen as the main contender against Déby, died shortly after the presidential election date was announced.

Last month, the Constitutional Council announced that outspoken opposition figures Nassour Ibrahim Neguy Koursami and Rakhis Ahmat Salehwould be barred from contesting, citing “irregularities” in their application. This has further weakened the strength of those opposing Déby’s presidential bid.

After Déby took over power, the junta announced a Transitional Military Council which said it will return the country to democracy within 18 months. In its formation, the council dissolved the government and national assembly, replacing the constitution with an interim charter. Opposition, civil society groups and many citizens were against the move, stating that Déby taking over his deceased father’s seat was a palace coup. Demonstrations against the unconstitutional takeover ensued in the country’s capital, N’Djamena, and protesters were met with military force. Police fired teargas into the midst of protesting groups across weeks of agitations, killing several and arresting dozens.

Shortly after, the Déby-led council banned protests altogether, a similar move his father used on several occasions. In the time since he took power, observers have stated that Déby has employed several of his father’s political moves, allegedly mirroring the same arrogant, undemocratic and scheming ethos.

As the country approached the 18-month deadline in October 2022, the military council called for a national dialogue, and extended the timeline of the election by two years. The military council was also dissolved and replaced by a transitional government, appointed by Déby. Protests broke out in reaction to this, with government forces reportedly killing between 40 and 60 people.

Déby continued to run the country, even managing to pass constitutional reforms through a referendum. In December 2022, millions of Chadians voted for the adoption of the reforms, with 84 percent voting “Yes.” The proposed reforms include the ratification of an upper legislative chamber, the Senate, the establishment of an independent commission for human rights, and a reversion to a semi-presidential system.

The new constitution, drafted in June 2023 by the council, reversed some of the constitutional changes made in 2018 by Déby’s father. Due to local and international pressures, Déby’s father had signed a two-term limit law starting with the 2021 elections, while increasing presidential terms to six years. While the two-term limit still remains, a tenure was moved back to five years.

This is the first time in Chad’s history that the president and prime minister are running against each other. Now seemingly allied with the government, and with tension brewing between him and other opposition activists, it remains to be seen if Masra will give Déby a strong contest in the latter’s quest to consolidate power.