Nigeria Confronts a Rising Terrorist Threat in the North

Lakurawa emerged in Sokoto and Kebbi states between 2016 and 2017, initially invited by local leaders to combat banditry before establishing control over communities through its jihadist regime. "They started asking to check people's phones and would flog those that have music in them before deleting it," oneKebbi State resident said.

Critics argue that authorities were aware of Lakurawa's activities long before its recent designation as a terrorist organization, given the group's near-decade-long hold over the region. "They're always recognizing these terrorist organizations after they've done a lot of damage, and a lot of the time, they already have intel on those groups," said Dennis Ade Peter, a Nigeria-based writer for OkayAfrica, who framed the government's action as "reactive."

Global security analyst and military veteran Dickson Omodiale Osajie offered a contrasting perspective, suggesting that assigning the label of "terrorist group" to Lakurawa could inadvertently strengthen them. "What these guys want is publicity," Osajie told OkayAfrica. "Now they've gained international recognition, and international sponsors will start looking out for them and pouring in arms and ammunition."

Osajie outlined his 'four Ds' of counter-terrorism strategy: delink recruitment pathways, demotivate fighters by cutting [off] resources, demobilize networks, and demoralize groups by taking out those at the top. "When you remove their key leaders, you demoralize these criminal elements and reduce their fighting capacity," he explained.

Reports suggest Lakurawa's rise is linked to instability in Mali and Niger, where jihadist groups such as Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and ISIL operate. "They began an incursion into northern parts of Sokoto and Kebbi states from the Niger and Mali axis, particularly after the coup in Niger Republic,"confirmed Major General Edward Buba in a November 2024 statement.

Strained relations between Nigeria and Niger, particularly after Niger's 2023 coup, disrupted joint patrols that previously curbed Lakurawa's activities.In December, Niger's military leader, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, accused Abuja and France of funding the group to attack Niger — allegations President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has denied.

Osajie dismissed Tchiani's claims as "baseless and uncalled for," alleging that Tchiani is using Nigeria to deflect from his own leadership struggles. "A man who has risen to the rank of general should mind what he says. The people of Niger are getting tired of his leadership, and this is just an attempt to shift blame," Osajie stated. He pointed out that such allegations undermine the potential for cooperation between neighboring countries that share security challenges along their borders.

UN officials also warn that political instability across the Sahel, coupled with the growing reach of terrorist networks, threatens to destabilize West Africa further. Mohammed noted the increasing sophistication of terrorist groups, saying, "The tactics of these groups are evolving at a rapid and alarming pace. Terrorist networks are now pooling resources – finances, fighters, and expertise – while sharpening their capabilities with new technologies, including unmanned aerial systems."

"West Africa's future hangs in the balance," she added.

Recent Nigerian military operations, including airstrikes on Lakurawa camps, aim to disrupt the group's activities, but challenges persist. In December, a mistaken airstrikekilled 10 civilians in Sokoto State.

Osajie acknowledged the military's air and ground campaigns as "very effective." However, he reiterated the need to tackle the group's financial backers and cut off their resources. "Without finances and resources, they will not thrive," he stated. He urged the government to name and shame terrorist sponsors to deter further funding.

With Nigeria also battlingBoko Haram,kidnapping gangs, and otherarmed groups, Lakurawa's mounting presence adds to the nation's ongoing security challenges.

The UN has called for a unified, human rights-based approach to counterterrorism, including regional cooperation and investment in development to counter radicalization. "African-led and African-owned solutions must take the lead," Mohammed stated.